Population pyramids for selected Middle Eastern territories (From the US Census Bureau international Database. Click on the image for a larger version)
Much has been made of the fact that the the crowds protesting in Egypt against former President Hosni Mubarak consisted mainly of young people. This should not, however, be surprising. Any crowd picked randomly from the Egyptian population would consist mainly of young people.
61 percent of Egyptians are under 30 years old, and more than half of the population is under 25. Barely 10 percent of the country’s population is over 50, and fewer than one in 200 is over 80. Hosni Mubarak is 82, and much of the military leadership that replaced him is not far behind.
Many young Egyptians, particularly in the cities, are relatively well educated but unable to find employment, and they like people in the rest of the region face food prices that have increased significantly in recent months. These young people have made it clear that they blame their plight on their country’s elderly and ossified political elite (as did Tunisians before its popular uprising.) Egypt was – and for the moment still is – a country of young people governed by elderly, autocratic and out-of-touch leaders. This is hardly a recipe for political stability.
If demography was indeed an element in Egypt’s revolution, then it is no wonder that the autocratic leaders of Yemen, Syria and Jordan are worried, as are Palestinian leaders in Gaza and the West Bank. As the graph below shows, all of these places have more rapidly growing and younger populations than either Egypt or Tunisia. And all, to greater or lesser degrees, face the same problems of poverty and increasing food prices.
The region's youngest populations (Graph prepared using data from the U.S. Census Bureau International Database)
If we shift our gaze to the east, and examine the population pyramid of the Gulf State of Bahrain, we find a country its not the age structure of the population, but rather its ethnic and national composition that may be one of the elements that fuels discontent. The king, Hamad Bin Isa al-Khalifa and the political coterie that surround him are mainly Sunnis, but 70 percent of the population are Shia Muslims, and most of them are young (I took these photographs of Bahrain during a brief visit to the country in October 2011.)
Further complicating Bahrain’s situation is the rather odd shape of its population pyramid (left.) Like most of the Gulf States, Bahrain is fairly wealthy, and its economy relies heavily on expatriates and guest workers who are disproportionately male and of working age. In Bahrain’s case, foreigners also make up much of the country’s security force, leading to speculation that if called up to put down an uprising, they will be more likely to open fire (in contrast with members of Egypt’s military, most of them conscripts.)
Demography isn’t destiny any more than are religious, national, or ethic diversity. Young populations don’t always produce political instability. But it is impossible to understand what happened in Tunisia and Egypt, and what is brewing in much of the rest of the Middle East, without knowing something about the region’s population geographies and dynamics.
I thought that the key reason the “young population” was brought into the spotlight was because of the new methods of protesting. Technology! I went to a panel at UMW last semester about the Arab Spring (I think it was Arab Spring: Winter for Women?… something like that) and one of the first question brought up was how has technology made a difference. It is no surprise that the protesters are mostly young, as we have seen in this article but so what? Well, the youth bring a different dynamic to protesting. Something we have yet to see. Something new. World Changing. Inspiring. The use of technology for mass protest. We see this in the Occupy movement- where technology has changed the game, technology incorporated by the youth (Occupy offer other innovation such as human microphone and community). While yes, it would be important to a story that it is the youth who are angry at the elder leaders (elders who are a minority in the first place)… that the why.. but what about the so what?
It makes sense that because the majority of the Egyptian population is young they would protest against a government run by people in their 70s and 80s. They are from a different generation, they see the world from different eyes. If you look here in the US, we have age minimums for government positions, but it still puts officials in their 30s and greater. This gives a wider variety of perspectives on how to run a country. For youths in Egypt who can’t find jobs because of the way their country is run, it makes sense to protest. They want their voices heard in a society that they dominate.
Well, not quite true. We have minimum age requirements for public representative but, at the Federal level, most are a lot older than the minimum. Did you know that the 112th Congress, which took office in 2011, was one of the oldest in US history? The average age of House members was 58 – that’s older than I am, and that’s just the average (See http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/01/meet-the-new-congress-facts-and-figures-about-the-113th.html) In the Senate the average was 62. The US does differ from the Arab world demographically, however, in the shape of our population pyramids. The ratio of younger to older people in the Arab world in much higher than it is in the US, and this is one of the issues underlying the Arab Spring protests. Kasey mentions another important one below.
Yes, a lot has been made of the so-called ‘Twitter Revolution(s),’ and there is no doubt that social media played a role in both the organization of the protests and, crucially, in getting information out to the world about what was going on in Egypt, Tunisia, and, crucially, Syria. It is easy, though, to exaggerate the influence of any one element in a causing or even facilitating an uprising, particularly one that spreads over very broad area and a number of different countries. Demographics played a role as did social media. The self-immolation of a Tunisian vendor served as a catalyst for the protests, but none of these caused them. The causes lay (and continue to lie) in the perception by large segments of the populations concerned that their governments were undemocratic and unresponsive (Here’s an article, written early on in the protests, which reports on some different perspectives on the role of social media: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/25/twitter-facebook-uprisings-arab-libya )
I agree that technology is a huge factor in the youth political uprisings. I think technology introduces knowledge to them concerning how other places have made changes and their systems. This information gives them hope and inspiration to change their current situation. Its an exciting and dynamic change in the political sphere.
I do agree that technology does have some sort of effect on the fact that most of the protesting crowds are made up of young people. However, I think it’s important that we take notice that we cannot label it as the sole factor. There have to be other reasons, like differing views based off of generational differences, the few privileged governing the rest, and the realization that the government isn’t a fair representation and is unresponsive. That being said, we might infer that the protestors’ recognition of these facts might have stemmed from and increasing use of technology, but there were probably other ways news spread, like word of mouth. Another reason why a majority of the protestors are young could be because the idea of an undemocratic, unresponsive government is not what they want in their future. At least in American culture, it is often said that the younger generations are key to the future, and the protestor’s in Egypt putting that ideal into action by protesting. Again, age is only one demographic, and, like technology, there are other factors that need to be considered in analyzing these protests.
Although social media is a contribution to youth political movements, I do not think we should give social media too much credit. Remember the Stop Kony campaign in 2012? Sure it spread like wildfire, but after (admittedly, some interesting and undermining developments) it was completely forgotten and left behind. Social media plays a part in aiding communication and the spread of information, but any real attempt at political change has to be in some form still in the ‘real world’. People sitting behind computers clicking buttons may feel like they are changing the world, but at some point, someone has to go outside and physically do something.
Our system is democratic and very different than most of the middle east dictatorships or authoritarian governments. By being democratic, our system will only allow a congressman to retain his position of power if he does a good enough job to get a majority of the votes in the next election. This means the congressman must to appeal to the young crowds as well as the old. In dictatorships the rulers maintain power until the are decease. The larger and younger demographic haven’t lived with that dictator their whole life the same way the old demographic has. Because the young demographic is the majority of the population, they have the strength to take on the government. The young demographic can use this power to influence their government by rioting or large civil disobedience demonstrations.
It is very interesting to think that age can have an impact on a nation’s stability. I think in the US, we tend to have a glorified view of youth. “How great to be young and in the prime of life,” we often hear, and we are told, even in this geography class, that as the upcoming generation, we must be bright and promising. We are also frequently encouraged in schools to “make a difference” with emphasis put on community service. I am curious as to whether countries like Egypt also have a worldview that idealizes youth. Did the discontent of young Egyptians come from their being denied a chance to “make a difference’ in their society? I guess what I’m asking is, what kind of influence does the view of young people have on their discontentedness or contentedness with their countries?
Critical post! A good percentage of people structure their positions and understandings of conflicts in the Middle-East based on stereotypical assumptions. Often, indigenous populations in Middle-Eastern countries are perceived to be inherently violent (rebellious) and irrational. Such perceptions are of course introduced by the media and solidified via common discourse. Such misunderstandings arise specifically because the general public is frequently uninformed about the history, socio-cultural relations, and religious differences that influence changes and tension in the Middle-East. Moreover, considering “population geographies and dynamics” is also critical to a more balanced understanding of present events in the Middle-East. Without taking into account a plethora of elements that shape behavior and interactions within Middle-Eastern countries, peoples’ perceptions will continue to remain ethnocentric and misinformed.
This may be a stupid question but why dont they migrate to a different country? Kuwait, Qatar, and Israel all have really high GDPs and are relatively close, so why wouldn’t they immigrate to those countries? I know a huge number of Palestinians move to Kuwait where there are better and more job opportunities, so why wouldn’t the Egyptians do the same? Even South Africa offers more job opportunities than many other African nations. I would assume if it was so bad in Egypt that they weren’t living to reach their fifties, they would try to find work else where. Are there laws prohibiting it, or is it a national pride issue?